Written by Bob Adelmann
Rasmussen’s presidential tracking poll released on Tuesday showed President Trump’s approval rating among likely black voters is at 42 percent. Among “other non-white likely voters,” Trump’s approval rating is at 56 percent. According to Pew Research, just six percent of black voters supported the president in 2016.
One can do the math: If even a small part of that new 42-percent approval translates into votes for Trump on November 3, Joe Biden will disappear permanently into his basement.
The Rasmussen poll is no outlier, either. On August 31, Emerson College reported Trump getting 19 percent support from blacks, while the next day a Political Polls report showed Trump’s support among Hispanic voters at 41 percent.
On September 2, the Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll found Trump ahead of Biden among all voters by three percentage points, 48 to 45. A week later, Gianno Caldwell, Fox News’ political analyst, predicted a Trump win thanks to the surge among these critical blocs: “There is no way [Biden] is going to get President Obama’s 2008 numbers when it comes to African American support, which [was] at 94, 95, 96 percent. He is not going to get that. Therefore I think Joe Biden is going to lose this race for president.”
Trump’s support is flowing upward from the states. On September 3, Rasmussen reported that Trump now “has the support of 27 percent of black likely voters in Pennsylvania” while a poll conducted by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas, Tyler reported on September 6 that Trump leads Biden by two points, 48-46, among likely Texas voters. In early July Biden was ahead of Trump by five points.
Victor Davis Hanson summed up the current situation in National Review on Tuesday:
There are some stunning indications that the supposedly satanic racist Donald Trump could be polling in some surveys around a 35-40 approval rate among Latinos and 20-30 percent among African Americans. Other polls are more equivocal but suggest an unexpected Trump surge among minority voters.
If those polls are accurate and predict November voting patterns, then Joe Biden could lose the popular vote as well as the key swing states by larger margins than Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College losses in 2016.
Absent a good deal of post-election “cheating” from mail-in ballots, Biden’s chances don’t look good.